After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

Following the jobs report on Friday that showed job creation had deteriorated from “decent” to “weak,” yields dropped across the board, except for the 30-year yield, which ticked up. Yields are now ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide ...

I still remember back in 2006, when the curve inverted ahead of the financial crisis. Hardly anyone outside of bankers, economists, hardcore investors and bond traders knew what it meant. But by 2008, ...

The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...